Rochester’s run home: With the second half of the split round to play out this week, the Tigers will be coming up against Seymour (9th, 6-9).
The Lions have been an unpredictable team so far this season.
They are able to produce incredible games like they did against Benalla, but have also been on the end of 100-point thrashings.
The Lions have a lot of Rochy about them — their best is very good, but they are somewhat inconsistent.
On the road for their game, the Tigers know they cannot lose this game.
The following week, the Tigers take on Shepp United (10th, 4-11).
United is finished in terms of any chance of playing finals this season, but it will still be out to prove a point.
The Demons have a couple of wins under their belts this season, but will still be looking to win another.
However, we believe this is a winnable game for the Tigers, and they should get the result.
The problem in terms of the Tigers season is they have to finish the season against Kyabram (1st, 16-0).
If everything were to go the Tigers’ way for the rest of the season, it would still mean that to play finals, the Tigers have to beat Kyabram.
And while we have faith in the Tigers, there is no bigger challenge in football than Kyabram.
This is a huge challenge.
The contenders: If Rochester is going to play finals, it will be relying on two teams above them to play along.
Mansfield (6th, 8-7-1) made things a bit more difficult on Saturday by playing out a draw with Tatura (5th, 9-6-1).
The result leaves the Eagles two-and-a-half wins clear of the Tigers with two games remaining for the Eagles.
If the Tigers were to somehow win their last three games, they would need Mansfield to lose its remaining two games — against Seymour and Shepp United.
The Tigers will also be relying on Euroa (7th, 8-8) to not win a game.
The Magpies suffered a loss at the hands of Echuca in the dying moments of Saturday’s game, which helps the Tigers to an extent.
The problem is their opponents.
Euroa faces Shepp Swans (12th, 0-16) and Shepparton (2nd, 12-3) to finish off its season.
In theory, if Euroa only just got over the line against the Swans and was belted by the Bears, the eight-point percentage gap could be closed.
Conclusion: There is no sugar coating this — the Tigers are in serious trouble.
If you get to this point in the season and you are relying on other results to go your way, you have serious problems.
Rochester has played some good football this season, especially considering its off-season losses.
But the truth is — Rochy’s finals campaign can be kissed goodbye at this point.