* Where: The Gabba, Brisbane
* The form:
Brisbane Lions (home-and-away season: fifth, 14 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw): Won nine consecutive games to surge into the top eight, before losing two of their final three home-and-away outings, coughing up a double-chance in the process.
Carlton (home-and-away season: eighth, 13 wins, 10 losses): Fell into the finals despite losing six of their past eight games, with the only wins during that period coming against lowly North Melbourne and West Coast.
* Head-to-head
Overall: Played: 40. Brisbane Lions 23, Carlton 17
In finals: Played: 4. Brisbane Lions 3, Carlton 1
Last time: Round 1, 2024: Brisbane Lions 12.13 (85) lost to Carlton 13.8 (86) at the Gabba
Last final: Preliminary final, 2023: Brisbane Lions 11.13 (79) bt Carlton 9.9 (63) at the Gabba
* Key players:
Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions). Two-time Brownlow Medallist is in hot form and in the frame to win the league's most prestigious individual honour a third time. The 31-year-old is arguably in career-best form, after winning a season-high 40 disposals in his most recent outing and averaging 29.55 a game this year. Neale has added another string to his bow over the past two months, kicking 10 goals in eight games.
Patrick Cripps (Carlton). Blues coach Michael Voss believes his captain has gone to a new level this season and is now unable to be tagged. Cripps is the competition's best contested possession winner (15.65 per game) and wins more clearances (8.13 per game) than any other player, while also ranking in the top 10 for disposals (28.74 per game).
Jack Payne (Brisbane Lions). Key defender missed the final seven matches of the home-and-away season with a foot injury but returned through the VFL last week and has been recalled for the knockout final. Payne is set to be handed the tough ask of stopping Carlton spearhead Harry McKay, allowing teammate Harris Andrews to play his intercept game.
Sam Docherty (Carlton). No risks taken on injured star forward Charlie Curnow (ankle), but veteran defender Docherty returns just six months after going down with a serious knee injury on the same Gabba surface in the season opener. Will be expected to provide his trademark drive off half-back and leadership in a do-or-die final.
* The stat: Unbeaten at the Gabba last year on their march to the grand final, Brisbane's fortress has been breached four times already this season. Three of those losses came in the first two months of the campaign - including an opening-round defeat to Carlton - but only GWS have beaten the Lions on their home deck in their past eight outings.
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