Ahead of parliament's return from a five-week hiatus, a Newspoll published in The Australian on Monday showed primary support for the government dropping to 29 per cent, down from 33 per cent in June.
It was the lowest vote share for Labor since June 2013, not long before Kevin Rudd became prime minister for a second time, replacing Julia Gillard in an ultimately futile attempt to win that year's election.
The poll, conducted in the previous week, put Pauline Hanson's One Nation on level pegging with Labor but also down one point from June.
Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said the changing political environment and rise of One Nation meant Labor's primary vote in the 20s was not as dire as it first appeared.
"It's a totally irrelevant comparison because at the time, the primary votes of the other parties are so different," he told AAP.
"At the moment, Labor can be on 29 per cent and still be beating both its opponents head to head.
"Possibly, Labor could even win a majority on 29 per cent, whereas in Gillard's time, 29 per cent meant that you were being thrashed. It's all relative."
Labor's primary vote was well down on the 34.5 per cent share it received at the 2025 election, but frontbencher Tanya Plibersek said there was still a long way to go until voters returned to the ballot box.
"It's certainly a change and we've got a bit of time between now and the next election to right that - that's why we are absolutely focused every day on making a real difference in people's lives," she told Seven's Sunrise program.
Health Minister Mark Butler also sought to play down the result.
"We don't look at (polls) much, they're coming up on a weekly basis, and they will for the long 18 months until the next election," he told Nine's Today.
"We're focused on doing the job that we have."
The coalition continued to trail well behind Labor and One Nation, on a near-record low primary share of 18 per cent.
Labor led 58-42 per cent from the Liberal-National bloc on a two-party preferred basis.
Dr Bonham said it was still too early to tell whether support for One Nation had reached a peak.
But One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce said the latest poll showed the surge in support for Pauline Hanson's party was more than just a protest vote.
"Obviously, what's happened is people don't believe in the authenticity of Labor beyond socialism," he said.
"They're very good at socialism. They're very good at taking away the rights of our land.''
The poll was released ahead of federal parliament returning on Tuesday after the winter break.
Debate is set to centre on contentious gambling ad reforms, an overhaul of the NDIS and migration levels.
Immigration Minister Tony Burke cancelled a speech at the National Press Club that was due to be held earlier in August, when he was expected to reveal changes to Australia's migration intake.
One Nation has long been pressing for migration cuts and Mr Joyce flagged the populist party could push for an annual intake even lower than the 130,000 figure touted by Senator Hanson.
8°C