On Wednesday, Stats NZ released second-quarter consumer price index (CPI) data showing prices grew just 3.3 per cent in the year to June.
Non-tradeable, or domestic, inflation was measured at 5.4 per cent for the year, with tradeable inflation slumping to 0.3 per cent.
The headline figure is down from four per cent in the first quarter and 7.3 per cent two years ago at the height of New Zealand's post-pandemic inflation shock.
It's also tantalisingly close to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) target band of one to three per cent.
A return to that level is likely to trigger cuts to the official cash rate (OCR) of 5.5 per cent, where it has sat for more than a year.
The RBNZ will next consider the OCR at the end of August.
The inflation figure of 3.3 per cent was below the market consensus of 3.5 per cent, and the RBNZ's own prediction of 3.6 per cent.
ANZ and ASB banks both tipped 3.3 per cent, as did consultancy Infometrics.
Speaking prior to the announcement, ANZ economist Henry Russell said a low CPI figure would "tilt the risks that way" towards cuts in 2024.
"Markets are pricing in 100 basis points of cuts by February," he said.
"(Data is) all pointing to weakness across the economy ... things are not looking good out there."
New Zealand has endured a double-dip recession over the last 18 months, with per capita GDP falling for six consecutive quarters.
