Nationally, the report models four possible futures up until 2050, with Greater Shepparton’s population, under the most ambitious scenario, projected to double.
Under “Business as Usual” where current trends continue, Greater Shepparton’s population is projected to rise from 69,874 in 2024 to 76,368, but other regional areas are growing faster.
But under the RAI’s “Nation Building” scenario, a more ambitious approach involving stronger regional visas, targeted infrastructure investment and co-ordinated national planning, Greater Shepparton’s population could hit 112,506, an increase of roughly 42,600.
Two intermediate scenarios, “Enhanced” and “Transformational Regional Shift”, would see the region reach 86,827 and 94,001 people, respectively.
The report labels Shepparton as one of the nation’s “Regional Cities”, an area with more than 50,000 residents with the size and economic diversity to shape their own future, provided infrastructure and housing keep pace.
RAI chief executive Liz Ritchie said the debate about Australia’s population future shouldn’t assume growth must keep concentrating in capital cities.
“We should be looking at the regional communities that are actively calling for more people and more investment,” Ms Ritchie said.
“Our modelling shows that with stronger regional development, regional Australia could account for 38 to 40 per cent of the national population by 2050.”
Ms Ritchie added that migrants and internal movers were already helping towns such as Shepparton fix workforce gaps in health, education, trades, agriculture and hospitality.
She called for a national settlement strategy to direct more of that migration towards growing regional centres.
For Greater Shepparton, the numbers underline what’s at stake locally, with the RAI’s modelling showing the difference between a “business as usual” scenario and a “nation building” one is tens of thousands of future residents, jobs and homes.
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